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Special Situations Research — Catalyst-Driven Plays

Objective: Build Tactical Sleeve (3-12 month holds, pre-defined exits)

Generated: 2026-05-09

Screening Criteria

  • Position size: 2-4% max per name
  • Holding period: 3-12 months with explicit catalyst date
  • Entry: Quantifiable setup with defined risk/reward
  • Exit protocol: Target (thesis confirmation), Stop (thesis invalidation), Time stop (catalyst passes without reaction)
  • Anti-PLTR protocol: Pre-written re-entry plan for any tax-loss sale
  • Exclusions: Open-ended growth, pre-revenue speculation, leverage required

Sector Targets

  1. Biotech/Pharma: PDUFA dates, label expansions, trial readouts (Matt has domain knowledge)
  2. Fintech: Re-rating events, earnings inflections, regulatory clarity
  3. Energy Transition: Uranium restarts, grid infrastructure, nuclear renaissance
  4. AI Infrastructure: Deployment timelines, capex inflections, customer concentration resolution
  5. Special Situations: Spinoffs, M&A arb, sum-of-parts unlocks

Research Queue

  • [ ] Biotech PDUFA calendar Q2-Q4 2026
  • [ ] Fintech earnings surprises / guidance inflections
  • [ ] Uranium spot price + utility contracting timeline
  • [ ] AI datacenter capex cycle — customer concentration names
  • [ ] Spinoff pipeline 2026

Next: Populate with 5-10 quantified candidates

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