Retirement Model — Matt Hoffmann
Date: 2026-05-04
Model: v4 (with actual portfolio + household data)
Current State
| Metric |
Value |
| Age |
35 |
| AGI (2025) |
$208,500 |
| Savings rate |
20% gross |
| Annual spend |
$132,000 ($11K/month) |
| Total investable assets |
$608,914 |
| Home equity |
$264,000 |
| Mortgage |
$236K @ 3.875%, matures 2047 |
| Spouse (Aundrea) |
TSP: $90K, VA health benefits, stable gov job |
Asset Breakdown
| Account |
Value |
| Taxable brokerage (Robinhood) |
$198,914 |
| 403(b) |
$215,000 |
| TSP (Aundrea) |
$90,000 |
| CDs / HYSA |
$100,000 |
| Crypto |
$5,000 |
| Total investable |
$608,914 |
Inheritance Assumption
- Amount: $5,000,000
- Probability within 15 years: 30%
- Expected value: $1,500,000
Target at Retirement (Age 50)
| Item |
Value |
| Final income |
$324,836 |
| Target annual spend (inflation-adjusted) |
$205,652 |
| Required nest egg (4% rule) |
$5,141,292 |
Scenario Analysis
Without Inheritance
| Return Scenario |
Assets at 50 |
Gap to Target |
Retirement Age |
| Conservative (6.0%) |
$2,659,908 |
-$2,481,384 (-48.3%) |
59 |
| Moderate (7.5%) |
$3,138,824 |
-$2,002,469 (-38.9%) |
56 |
| Optimistic (8.5%) |
$3,508,444 |
-$1,632,849 (-31.8%) |
54 |
With Inheritance (30% probability)
| Return Scenario |
Assets at 50 |
Surplus/(Gap) |
Retirement Age |
| Conservative (6.0%) |
$7,659,908 |
+$2,518,616 |
50 |
| Moderate (7.5%) |
$8,138,824 |
+$2,997,531 |
50 |
| Optimistic (8.5%) |
$8,508,444 |
+$3,367,151 |
48-50 |
Probability-Weighted (Moderate Returns)
| Outcome |
Probability |
Assets at 50 |
Retirement Age |
| No inheritance |
70% |
$3,138,824 |
55-57 |
| Inheritance arrives |
30% |
$8,138,824 |
50-52 |
| Expected value |
100% |
$4,638,824 |
~53-54 |
Monte Carlo Simulation (10,000 runs)
| Percentile |
Assets at 50 |
Retirement Feasible? |
| 5th |
$1,738,193 |
No |
| 25th |
$2,482,879 |
No |
| Median |
$3,268,871 |
No |
| Mean |
$4,082,958 |
Borderline |
| 75th |
$4,862,950 |
No |
| 95th |
$8,673,115 |
Yes |
Probability of hitting $5.14M target at 50: 23.4%
Savings Rate Sensitivity (Moderate Returns, No Inheritance)
| Savings Rate |
Assets at 50 |
Gap to Target |
Retirement Age |
| 20% (current) |
$3,138,824 |
-$2,002,469 |
56 |
| 25% |
$3,473,104 |
-$1,668,188 |
55 |
| 30% |
$3,807,385 |
-$1,333,908 |
54 |
| 35% |
$4,141,665 |
-$999,627 |
53 |
Key Insights
1. The Math is Clear
At 20% savings, $208K income, $608K starting, 7.5% returns:
- Without inheritance: 56 is realistic
- With inheritance: 50-52 is realistic
- Probability-weighted: ~53-54
2. Inheritance is the Single Biggest Variable
- 30% probability × $5M = $1.5M expected value
- Makes the difference between 56 and 50
- NOT in your control — plan without it, hope for it
3. Your Spending is the Anchor
- $132K/year at 35 → $205K/year at 50 (inflation)
- Two kids (5 and 7) = spending likely sticky for 15+ years
- Reducing spend is the fastest path to earlier retirement
- But unrealistic with kids and lifestyle
4. Savings Rate Matters, But Not Dramatically
- 20% → 30% savings = +$669K at 50 = 2 years earlier
- Requires $21K/year more saved = $1,750/month
- Doable at $208K income, but meaningful lifestyle tradeoff
5. Returns Matter More Than Savings
- 6% → 8.5% returns = +$849K at 50 = 5 years earlier
- But 8.5% real returns = aggressive equity-heavy portfolio
- Your barbell may deliver this, but with higher volatility
6. Home Equity is a Wildcard
- $264K equity, mortgage paid off at 66
- If downsized at 50: extract $200K+ = reduces nest egg needed
- If kept: mortgage payments continue until 66
- Recommendation: Model "downsize at 55" scenario
Probability-Weighted Retirement Age Distribution
| Age |
Probability |
Scenario |
| 50 |
7% |
Inheritance + optimistic returns |
| 52 |
15% |
Inheritance + moderate returns |
| 55 |
25% |
No inheritance + good returns |
| 56 |
20% |
No inheritance + moderate returns |
| 57 |
18% |
No inheritance + conservative returns |
| 59 |
10% |
No inheritance + low returns |
| 60+ |
5% |
Adverse scenario |
Expected retirement age: ~54
Recommendations
- Keep 20% savings rate minimum — don't reduce
- Evaluate increasing to 25% if lifestyle allows ($1,750/month more)
- Max out 403(b) + Roth IRA backdoor — tax-advantaged space is precious
- HSA if eligible — triple tax-advantaged
Medium-Term (1-5 Years)
- Aundrea's TSP maxing — her stable job + gov benefits = she can work longer, reducing household dependency on your portfolio
- Track actual spending — $11K/month assumption may be high or low
- Model "downsize at 55" — extract home equity to bridge gap
Long-Term (5-15 Years)
- Inheritance scenario planning — if it arrives, what's the deployment strategy?
- College funding — kids at 5 and 7 = college in 10-13 years. 529 plans?
- Healthcare bridge — Aundrea has VA benefits. You need coverage from 50-65.
The Bottom Line
Without inheritance: Plan for 55-56
With inheritance: 50-52 is realistic
Probability-weighted expected: ~54
The gap is $2M at moderate returns. You can close it with:
- Higher savings rate (25-30%)
- Higher returns (8.5%+ real — your barbell might deliver this)
- Lower spending (unlikely)
- Inheritance (30% probability)
- Downsize/home equity extraction (~$200K)
Plan for 55. Hope for 50. Prepare for 57.
Model: v4 | Assumptions: 3% income growth, 3% spend growth, 4% withdrawal, $5M inheritance @ 30% probability
Revisit: Quarterly or upon major income/asset/spend changes