# Paper Portfolio — Midas CSP Simulation

## Simulation Rules
- **Capital:** $10,000 virtual
- **Max concurrent positions:** 3
- **Sector diversification required:** No two positions in same macro bucket
- **Strategy:** Cash-Secured Puts only (no spreads, no margin)
- **Expiry ladder:** Staggered to maintain deployment velocity
- **Target:** 50 paper trades before live capital deployment

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## Portfolio Ledger

### Position 1: RIVN $13 Put — OPEN
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| **Ticker** | RIVN |
| **Sector** | EV / Automotive |
| **Strategy** | Cash-Secured Put |
| **Strike** | $13.00 |
| **Expiry** | June 18, 2026 (44 DTE at entry) |
| **Entry date** | 2026-05-04 |
| **Days to expiry (today)** | 42 |
| **Premium received** | $0.40 |
| **Capital at risk** | $1,300 |
| **Breakeven** | $12.60 |
| **Entry stock price** | $15.02 |
| **Current stock price** | $14.69 |
| **Distance to strike** | 11.5% below current |
| **Delta at entry** | 0.2058 |
| **Status** | ✅ OPEN — no adjustment needed |

**Position P&L (unrealized):**
- If held to expiry and RIVN > $13: +$40 (3.1% on capital)
- Current mark likely ~$0.32-$0.35 (theta + stock down slightly = mixed)
- Paper unrealized gain: ~$5-$8 if closing today

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### Position 2: RGTI $15 Put — OPEN
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| **Ticker** | RGTI |
| **Sector** | Quantum Computing / Speculative Tech |
| **Strategy** | Cash-Secured Put |
| **Strike** | $15.00 |
| **Expiry** | July 17, 2026 (72 DTE at entry) |
| **Entry date** | 2026-05-06 |
| **Premium received** | $1.27 (at the mark) |
| **Capital at risk** | $1,500 |
| **Breakeven** | $13.73 |
| **Entry stock price** | $19.14 |
| **Distance to strike** | 21.6% below current |
| **Delta** | 0.2111 |
| **IV** | 98.70% |
| **Chance of profit** | 71.45% |
| **Status** | ✅ OPEN — executed today |

**Greeks:**
- Delta: 0.2111 (~21% probability of ITM at expiry)
- Gamma: -0.0343 (acceleration risk moderate — lower than RIVN)
- Theta: 0.0164 (~$1.64/day time decay in your favor)
- Vega: -0.0247 (short vol — if IV drops from 98%, you win)

**Trade Quality Assessment:**
✅ Delta 0.21 — within target range, manageable assignment risk
✅ IV at 98.70% — extraordinarily high = very rich premium
✅ 71.45% probability of profit — favorable
✅ 72 DTE — extended theta runway, but capital tied up longer
✅ 21.6% OTM — deep cushion, needs major selloff to hit strike
⚠️ Wide bid-ask ($1.21/$1.32) — slippage risk on exit
⚠️ Low volume (181) vs. open interest (5,803) — liquidity concern
⚠️ 72 DTE ties up $1,500 for 2.5 months — opportunity cost

**Annualized return if not assigned:** ($1.27 / $1,500) × (365 / 72) = **42.9%**

**What this means:**
- If RGTI stays above $15 through July 17: you keep $127 per contract (8.5% in 72 days)
- If RGTI drops below $15: you buy 100 shares at $15, true cost $13.73
- At $13.73 breakeven, RGTI would need to fall **28.3%** from current $19.14

**Scenario analysis:**
| RGTI at expiry | Outcome | P&L per contract |
|----------------|---------|------------------|
| $22.00 | Expire worthless | +$127 |
| $18.00 | Expire worthless | +$127 |
| $15.00 | Expire worthless | +$127 |
| $13.00 | Assigned, immediate paper loss | -$73 |
| $10.00 | Assigned, larger loss | -$373 |
| $5.00 | Assigned, significant loss | -$873 |

**Emotion checkpoint:**
- RGTI at $13.73 true cost = owning a quantum computing spec play at ~$3B market cap
- This is a "moonshot" name — can you stomach a 50% drawdown if quantum hype cycle ends?
- The 98% IV means the market expects massive moves. You're betting it moves less than feared.

---

### Position 3: CCJ — PENDING
| Field | Value |
|-------|-------|
| **Ticker** | CCJ |
| **Sector** | Uranium / Mining / Energy |
| **Status** | ⏳ PENDING — capital constraint |

**Constraint:** CCJ at $100-$105 strike requires $10,000-$10,500 capital. Current portfolio deployed = $2,800. Cannot add CCJ until:
- RIVN expires June 18 (+$1,300 freed), or
- RGTI closes early (target 50% profit = ~$0.63 buyback, frees capital faster), or
- We find smaller-capital uranium alternative (e.g., URA ETF options)

---

## Capital Math

| Position | Capital | Status |
|----------|---------|--------|
| RIVN $13 | $1,300 | ✅ Deployed |
| RGTI $15 | $1,500 | ✅ Deployed |
| Reserve / dry powder | $7,200 | Available |
| **Total allocated** | **$2,800** | **28% deployed** |

**Note:** $7,200 is insufficient for CCJ at standard strike. We will ladder into CCJ in June when RIVN capital recycles.

---

## Expiry Ladder

| Date | Event | Capital Freed | Cumulative Deployed |
|------|-------|---------------|-------------------|
| May 4 | Open RIVN | — | $1,300 |
| May 6 | Open RGTI | — | $2,800 |
| June 18 | RIVN expires | +$1,300 | $1,500 (RGTI only) |
| June 20 | Open CCJ | Uses $10,000-$10,500 | $11,800-$12,300 |
| July 17 | RGTI expires | +$1,500 | $10,000-$10,500 |
| July 20 | Open Position 4 | Uses freed capital | ~$10,000 |

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## Correlation & Risk Map

| Position | Sector | Macro Sensitivity | Correlation to RIVN | Correlation to RGTI |
|----------|--------|-------------------|---------------------|---------------------|
| RIVN | EV | Rates, consumer spending, oil prices | — | Low |
| RGTI | Quantum | Tech sentiment, speculative capital | Low | — |
| CCJ (future) | Uranium | Nuclear policy, commodity cycles, rates | Low | Very low |

**Portfolio beta to "growth selloff":** Moderate. RIVN and RGTI both bleed if rates spike or risk-off accelerates. CCJ is more idiosyncratic (uranium-specific).

**Portfolio beta to "EV sector dump":** Only RIVN. Good diversification.

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## Key Metrics

| Metric | Target | Current |
|--------|--------|---------|
| Capital deployed | 60-80% | 28% ($2,800 / $10,000) |
| Max delta per position | 0.30 | 0.21 (RIVN), 0.21 (RGTI) |
| Portfolio delta (notional) | <0.25 | ~0.21 (blended) |
| Sector concentration | <50% in one bucket | 0% — two different sectors ✅ |
| Min OTM distance | 10% | 11.5% (RIVN), 21.6% (RGTI) |
| Min annualized return | >15% | 25.5% (RIVN), 42.9% (RGTI) |

---

## Week 1 Observations (RIVN) + Day 1 (RGTI)

### RIVN — 2 days in
- Stock down 2.2% from entry ($15.02 → $14.69)
- Chopping sideways, no acceleration toward strike
- Theta accumulating ~$0.94/day
- Emotional state: likely calm — position working as designed

### RGTI — Day 1
- Stock at $19.14, deep OTM (21.6%)
- IV at 98.7% — you sold insurance during a fear spike
- Theta at $1.64/day — faster decay than RIVN despite longer DTE (higher IV)
- **Watch:** Wide bid-ask means closing early may cost you. Plan to hold closer to expiry unless 50% profit comes fast.

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## Adjustment Triggers — RGTI

| Trigger | Price | Action |
|---------|-------|--------|
| Watch | $17.00 | RGTI approaching strike zone, monitor daily |
| Caution | $15.50 | Consider rolling down/out if thesis intact |
| Breach | $14.00 (below breakeven) | Decide: accept assignment or roll |
| Thesis break | Quantum computing sector crash | Cut loss, don't roll |

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## Paper Trade #2 — Execution Notes

**Execution time:** 2026-05-06 ~15:45 UTC
**Platform:** Robinhood
**Fill quality:** Mid-market ($1.27 mark, filled at or near)
**Emotional state:** (Log while fresh)
- Excitement? RGTI is a "moonshot" name — did that feel different from RIVN?
- Anxiety? 98% IV is extreme — did that worry you or excite you?
- Comparison: How did this feel vs. RIVN entry? More conviction? Less?

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## Trade Velocity Tracker

| Trade # | Date | Ticker | Strategy | Status |
|---------|------|--------|----------|--------|
| 1 | May 4 | RIVN | CSP $13 Jun | ✅ Open |
| 2 | May 6 | RGTI | CSP $15 Jul | ✅ Open |
| 3 | TBD (Jun) | CCJ | CSP $100-$105 | ⏳ Pending |
| 4 | TBD (Jul) | TBD | TBD | ⏳ Pending |

**Progress to 50 trades:** 2 / 50 (4%)
**Estimated pace:** ~2 trades/month at current capital constraint. To hit 50 in reasonable time, we may need:
- Smaller-capital names to increase velocity
- A second $10K simulation book with different strategy
- Accepting 50 trades will take 18-24 months at this pace

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## Director Decisions — Post-Execution

1. **How did the RGTI execution feel?** Different from RIVN? More/less anxiety?

2. **Profit-taking on RGTI:** 50% max profit = ~$0.63 buyback. At that level, close and redeploy, or hold for full 71 days? (Note: Wide bid-ask may make early closure expensive.)

3. **Capital velocity:** Are you comfortable with ~2 trades/month, or should we explore smaller-capital alternatives (SOFI $10, NIO $4) to increase trade count while staying under $10K?

4. **CCJ timing:** Wait for June (post-RIVN expiry) with $100-$105 strike, or consider URA (uranium ETF) options at lower capital?

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*Portfolio updated: 2026-05-06 15:45 UTC*